The promotion ladder is being replaced by a capability portfolio

In the AI era, proof of skill will matter more than titles, tenure, or job descriptions.

Article link: https://open.substack.com/pub/johanosteyn/p/the-promotion-ladder-is-being-replaced?r=73gqa&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

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We are watching a quiet but profound shift in how careers are built. For a long time, progress at work followed a familiar script: earn a title, climb a ladder, collect years of experience, and move up. But as AI becomes embedded in everyday workflows, employers are starting to value something else: demonstrable capability. 

That is why ideas like “skills, not titles” are suddenly everywhere, from professional services firms to broader talent conversations. PwC’s latest messaging is not just a branding exercise; it is a signal that large employers are reorganising training and progression around evidence of what you can do, not what you are called. For business leaders, the implication is clear: your people strategy will increasingly be measured by how quickly you can build, verify, and redeploy skills, not how neatly you can maintain job families.

CONTEXT AND BACKGROUND

The pressure is coming from both sides. On the one hand, AI is reshaping the task layer of work: drafting, summarising, analysing, coding, and answering routine queries are becoming faster, and in some cases partially automated. On the other hand, labour markets are getting tighter in the very white-collar entry points that used to be the training ground for future leaders. The Financial Times recently reported on a surge in graduate applications to PwC UK, reflecting both demand for stable roles and a growing sense that the early career landscape is changing.

At the same time, skills signals are increasingly visible in hiring data. Business Insider reported that AI-related job listings have surged even while broader hiring slowed, reinforcing the idea that “AI literacy” is becoming a baseline expectation in many roles, not a niche specialism. Against that backdrop, it makes sense that firms are looking for a more flexible way to move talent around than static titles allow.

INSIGHT AND ANALYSIS

A capability portfolio is a simple idea: instead of relying on a job title to communicate value, you rely on evidence. That evidence might include project outcomes, observed simulations, peer-reviewed work products, client impact, and practical demonstrations of judgment. AI accelerates this shift because it reduces the signalling power of routine output. If AI can produce a competent first draft, a basic analysis, or a generic plan, then the differentiator moves to higher-order capabilities: framing the right problem, selecting the right approach, spotting risks, communicating clearly, and making decisions with incomplete information.

This is where many organisations will stumble. Skills-first language is easy; skills-first decisions are hard. If skills do not influence pay, promotion, staffing, and learning investment, the framework becomes theatre. The credibility test is whether leaders are willing to reward demonstrated capability even when it cuts across legacy hierarchies and comfortable career pathways.

There is also a training dilemma: if AI absorbs some of the repetitive work that used to teach juniors the basics, how do you build judgment? Business Insider recently highlighted how AI use among entry-level workers can create training risks, because shortcuts can hide misunderstandings and reduce learning-by-doing. A capability portfolio only works if the organisation deliberately designs pathways for real competence, not just fast output.

IMPLICATIONS

For CEOs and boards, treat capability building as a measurable business system. Ask for metrics that reflect reality: time-to-competence for critical skills, internal mobility rates, quality outcomes, error rates, and the speed at which teams can be redeployed when priorities shift. The World Economic Forum has been tracking how AI is already affecting hiring and wage signals, reinforcing that skill demand is becoming more dynamic and more visible.

For CHROs and business unit leaders, redesign progression around evidence. That means creating internal “skills marketplaces”, structured apprenticeships, and assessed practice, not just training hours. It also means recognising that portfolios require trust: managers must be trained to evaluate capability consistently, not reward confidence, politics, or proximity.

For employees, the message is both empowering and unsettling: your title will carry less protection. Your resilience will come from building a portfolio you can explain and defend. The IMF has argued that policy and organisational choices will determine whether workers are prepared for the AI era, which is a reminder that this is not only an individual responsibility.

CLOSING TAKEAWAY

The shift from ladders to portfolios is not a fad. It is a rational response to work that is changing faster than job descriptions can be rewritten. Titles will not disappear, but they will lose their monopoly on meaning. The organisations that thrive will be those that make capability visible, measurable, and portable across teams, while protecting the learning journeys that build judgement. In the AI era, the most valuable workforce is not the one with the most impressive titles. It is the one that can continuously prove what it can do, and can keep learning at the pace the world now demands.

Author Bio: Johan Steyn is a prominent AI thought leader, speaker, and author with a deep understanding of artificial intelligence’s impact on business and society. He is passionate about ethical AI development and its role in shaping a better future. Find out more about Johan’s work at https://www.aiforbusiness.net